Field note · July 10, 2024
The overall average hides 5 different numbers
Real group means for one column across 5 segments, and what the pooled average conceals.
borough splits ride-hail-trips into 5 groups. Here is what distance_km looks like inside each.
Airport— mean 14.77, median 13.59 (965 rows)Uptown— mean 3.51, median 2.90 (1,453 rows)Downtown— mean 3.47, median 2.87 (2,399 rows)Midtown— mean 3.47, median 2.90 (2,034 rows)Harbour— mean 3.43, median 2.89 (1,149 rows)
Top to bottom that is 14.77 against 3.43, a spread of 331.0%. The pooled average is 4.83.
select borough,
count(*) as rows,
round(avg(distance_km)::numeric, 2) as mean,
percentile_cont(0.5) within group (order by distance_km) as median
from ride_hail_trips
group by 1
order by mean desc;A spread that wide means the pooled number is not a summary, it is an artefact of the mix. Change the proportion of Airport rows and the overall average moves without any individual group changing at all — which is how a metric goes up while every segment goes down.
Notice the mean and median columns disagree only slightly here. Always compute both in the group-by. The comparison between them per segment is free and tells you whether you are looking at a level difference or a tail difference.
This is the setup for Simpson's paradox — the case where every segment moves one way and the total moves the other.