Field note · August 21, 2025

The average surge multiplier is not the typical one

A 35.0% gap between mean and median on one column, and which of the two answers the question you were asked.

1 min read ·Statistics ·statistics practice

Every skewed column has the same conversation attached to it, so here it is once, on surge_multiplier in ride-hail-trips.

The mean is 1.35. The median is 1.00. That is a gap of 35.0%, and it is not noise — the p90 is 2.60 and the max is 3.40, so the top of the distribution is dragging the average somewhere a minority of rows actually live.

sql
select
  avg(surge_multiplier)                                                     as mean,
  percentile_cont(0.5) within group (order by surge_multiplier)             as median,
  percentile_cont(0.9) within group (order by surge_multiplier)             as p90,
  max(surge_multiplier)                                                     as max
from ride_hail_trips;

The practical consequence is that "average surge multiplier" answers a question nobody asked. If someone wants to know what a typical row looks like, the median answers it. If someone is forecasting a total, the mean is the right tool and the skew does not matter, because the mean times the count is the total.

So the rule is not "never use the mean". It is: name which question you are answering, then pick the statistic that answers it. A report that shows 1.35 with no median next to it has quietly decided you meant the first question.

There is a longer version of this in Describing a column without lying, and the pattern is the short one.