Field note · May 30, 2023
The meeting where the median won
Two years of planning around an average that described nobody.
Average order value was $84. It had been $84-ish for two years, it was on the wall, and the free-shipping threshold was set at $75 on the reasoning that most customers were nearly there already.
The median was $41.
The threshold experiment had failed twice and nobody could explain why. The explanation was that we had designed for a customer who did not exist. Most people were not "nearly there" — they were asking to double their basket for free delivery, which is not a nudge.
The conversation that changed it was not an argument. I added the median to the same tile as the mean, with the gap visible, and said nothing for a month.
select
round(avg(order_total), 2) as mean,
round(percentile_cont(0.5) within group (order by order_total), 2) as median,
round(percentile_cont(0.9) within group (order by order_total), 2) as p90
from orders;Someone in a planning meeting pointed at it and asked why they were so far apart. That was the whole intervention. Explaining skew when a person has just noticed it themselves takes about forty seconds; explaining it unprompted takes a quarter and does not stick.
The threshold moved to $55. It worked.
I have since stopped trying to remove the mean from anything. Adding the median beside it does the job, and it does not require anyone to admit they were wrong.