Field note · September 2, 2024
Course note — Causal claims when you cannot randomise
Half the interesting questions cannot be tested. Here is what is available instead, what each method assumes, and how to state a conclusion you can defend.
Revised Causal claims when you cannot randomise this week. The change was small and the reason was not.
Half the interesting questions cannot be tested. Here is what is available instead, what each method assumes, and how to state a conclusion you can defend.
The first draft explained the mechanism and stopped. What was missing was the failure: the thing that happens when you get it wrong, described concretely enough that someone recognises it later. A lesson that only teaches the correct version leaves you unable to spot the incorrect one, which is the situation you will actually be in.
It sits in the Experiments and causal claims module. The exercise is a thinking one rather than a query one — some of this material is about deciding what to compute, and that does not need a keyboard.
Ordering matters here more than in most courses. It follows Reading a result without fooling yourself and leads into Frame the problem, then beat a stupid baseline, and reading it out of sequence mostly works but costs you the setup.
Free means free, and it also means we can rewrite it whenever it is wrong. No edition, no errata PDF, nothing to repurchase. The whole course is 36 lessons and the fixes land the day we find them.